Is the Gaza Ceasefire Truly the End or Just an Illusion?

The ceasefire, Trump's alleged involvement, mega-donors backing pro-Israel settlement policies, and more

On Wednesday, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden pridefully boasted about a ceasefire agreement passed to end the ongoing genocide in Gaza. But this is much more complex than just saying, “Hey, everything over.”

When you read about this in mass media, they only talk about the immediate present updates, but there is a lot that happened in the past and will happen in the future, which will dictate the trajectory of this ceasefire.

In this article, we will discuss the past, present, and possible future outcomes.

What Just Happened?

After more than 460 days of genocide, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal. This is after Israel has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians since October 7th of 2023 (officially), even though the medical journal The Lancet puts that number in the high 100,000s.

Photo by Mohammed Ibrahim on Unsplash

Officials rejected this *same* exact proposal in May 2024. Although this version has six minor changes to its appendix, there are speculations about why it was accepted now.

We’ll get into that in a bit. 

The negotiated ceasefire will come in three phases:

Phase 1

Slated to start in Sunday, it will last six weeks, it will include:

• A limited prisoner exchange

  • 33 Israeli captives and a large number of Palestinian prisoners will be exchanged (including those with life sentences)

• Partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza

  • Israel will withdraw its forces from Gaza’s population centers to areas no more than 700 meters inside Gaza’s border

• Surge of aid deliveries into Gaza

  • Up to 600 truck deliveries per day

Phase 2

If they agree that the conditions have been met from phase 1:

• Hamas will release all the remaining live captives (mostly male soldiers) in return for more Palestinians held in Israeli prisons

• Israel will begin its complete withdrawal from Gaza

• These conditions still need to be voted on by the Israeli cabinet, and the far right is not super in support of it, so we’ll see

Phase 3

Details are unclear, but this is what we know:

• If the second phase conditions are met, bodies of remaining captives will be handed over in return for a 3-5 year re-construction plan conducted under international supervision

There is no agreement on who will administer Gaza after the ceasefire. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken envisions that the Palestinian Authority would invite “international partners” to take interim governing authority. In the short term, Arab states will also provide security forces.

Netanyahu is Stalling and Bombing Gaza (still)

In true Israeli fashion, they continued to bomb Gaza whilst people celebrated the ceasefire in Gaza and globally, murdering at least 80 people. One of the Israeli strikes was on a house in Gaza City that killed 18 people as they awaited the start of the ceasefire.

Since the ceasefire doesn’t start until Sunday, Netanyahu and his cabinet will likely continue to green-light ongoing carpet bombings until the last second.

Netanyahu also stalled the vote for his cabinet to allow the ceasefire deal. Claiming that there was a “last-minute” dispute with Hamas, the delayed response raises concerns that he won’t hold up his end of the bargain. According to his office:

“Hamas is backing out of the understandings and creating a last-minute crisis that prevents a settlement.”

They are refusing to reconvene until Hamas “backs down.” It sounds vague because it is. We don’t know any details beyond that.

How Trump and Netanyahu Colluded (allegedly)

Multiple reports suggest that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu stalled the passage of the ceasefire to help Trump win the election and give him all the credit. Although Netanyahu’s office denied it, Axios reported that Trump spoke with Netanyahu in mid-August to discuss the Gaza ceasefire deal. A couple of days later, NBC published an article with this quote:

“Trump has allegedly been talking with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avert a cease-fire deal, fearing that doing so could help Vice President Kamala Harris win in November”, according to PBS.

“The reporting is that former President Trump is on the phone with the Prime Minister of Israel, urging him not to cut a deal right now, because it’s believed that would help the Harris campaign,” said PBS’s Judy Woodruff Monday night.

History does repeat itself because this is precisely what happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980. Negotiations were underway for the American hostages in Iran, but they were purposefully released the day Ronald Reagan was sworn in as president, thanks to the Reagan campaign’s efforts.

Aggressive West Bank Settler Expansion With Trump Presidency…

There are rumors that Donald Trump may have agreed to more aggressive expansions of West Bank settlements in return for the Gaza ceasefire. However, what is publicly substantiated is that Trump supports settlement expansions regardless.

Settlers celebrated Trump’s election because many of his nominees are pro-expansion officials. For example, extremist evangelical ambassador Mike Huckabee said the West Bank is not under occupation and prefers the term “communities" to "settlements."

But there’s also another issue here: Miriam Adelson.

The Adelson’s and Donald Trump have been friends for a long time (pic via Wikipedia)

Adelson is the heir to her deceased husband’s casino empire, making her a billionaire and one of the wealthiest Israeli women in the world. She reportedly donated $100 million to Trump’s campaign, so it’s fair to say that she will possibly influence many of Trump’s foreign policy decisions, especially regarding Israel.

Adelson is so extreme that she and her husband faced a $34 BILLION lawsuit in 2016 for their support of Israeli settler expansion. They’re megadonors to Israeli settlements, even though the settler expansions have led to increased attacks on Palestinians and forced expulsions from their homes. They don’t seem to care.

The worst part: reports emerged in May of 2024 that Adelson conditioned her support for Trump if he allows Israel to annex the occupied West Bank officially.

It’s unclear if this will all pan out, as I am not a fortune teller. But the implications are horrifying, especially for the livelihood and future of the Palestinian people.

Wrapping it Up -

The ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, while a hopeful step toward ending the violence, is far from a simple resolution. The complexities of the situation—rooted in years of historical conflict, geopolitical maneuvering, and shifting alliances—demand a deeper understanding of what this ceasefire truly represents.

While both sides claim victory, the reality is that the future of Gaza, the fate of its people, and the broader region remain uncertain. As negotiations progress, questions about the administration of Gaza, the role of international partners, and the lasting impact on Palestinian lives will be key factors that determine whether this ceasefire will bring lasting peace or merely delay further conflict.

The international community, including key figures like domestic and global leaders, will continue to play a critical role in shaping this outcome, and the world must remain vigilant in holding them accountable for their moves.