To put it simply: the deal will redirect Venezuelan oil exports from China to the US, with a volume of 30-50 million barrels. Chevron is the only US company authorized to export Venezuelan oil. This agreement is proof that Trump’s bullying actually worked, with the Venezuelan government responding to Trump’s demand that they open up to US oil companies or risk more military attacks.
Excellent breakdown. The $2 billion oil deal proves exactly what the November NSS documented: This was never about narcoterrorism, democracy, or Maduro being a dictator. It was always about redirecting Venezuelan oil from China to U.S. companies. The doctrine explicitly calls for denying “non-Hemispheric competitors” access to “strategically vital assets.” Mission accomplished.
But here’s the profoundly stupid part: The United States is already the world’s largest oil producer. We produce roughly 13 million barrels per day. We don’t need Venezuelan oil for energy security. We’re a net exporter.
So what did Trump just purchase for $2 billion in heavy crude? He killed 80+ people, shredded constitutional war powers, destroyed NATO alliances, validated sphere-of-influence politics for China and Russia, and destabilized an entire hemisphere. For 30-50 million barrels of heavy crude that’s expensive and environmentally catastrophic to refine. Oil we could have simply purchased on the open market. Access we already had through Chevron.
Maduro literally offered oil contracts on January 2nd. Trump bombed Caracas on January 3rd, then negotiated the same deal days later with a terrified government. We got the oil without the bombing. The violence was pure performance to prove the NSS playbook works for replication across the hemisphere.
The economic insanity: Venezuela’s heavy crude requires specialized refining infrastructure most U.S. refineries aren’t optimized for. It’s sulfur-heavy, requires more processing, costs more to refine than the light sweet crude we already produce domestically in massive quantities. From pure energy economics, this makes zero sense.
This was never about smart resource acquisition. The $2 billion in oil is the excuse. The real prize was demonstrating Trump can bomb capitals, extract leaders, and face zero institutional pushback so Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, Greenland all know what compliance costs.
The NSS codified this as doctrine. Venezuela proved it works operationally.
The ramifications compound: Every Latin American government now hedges against U.S. partnership. China and Russia learned sphere-of-influence politics work if you’re brazen enough. NATO allies watched us violate every principle we demanded they uphold. Domestic precedent set that presidents can wage war without Congress. The occupation costs and insurgency risks haven’t even started.
We traded international legitimacy, constitutional governance, and the entire post-WWII rules-based order for oil we already produce in greater quantities domestically. That’s not “America First.” That’s imperial overreach speedrunning its own collapse while the world’s largest oil producer pretends it needs Venezuela’s difficult-to-refine heavy crude for a demonstration effect that will ultimately isolate us.
Good point and not speculative at all…it’s operationally logical given the doctrine already in place.
The NSS framework authorizes U.S. control of Venezuelan territory for “strategic” purposes. Trump literally said “we’re going to run the country.” If the administration is already conducting extrajudicial killings domestically via ICE and has explicitly rejected congressional oversight for military operations, what constrains them from using occupied Venezuelan territory as an extraterritorial detention site?
The precedent’s already set: Guantanamo operates precisely because it’s outside U.S. legal jurisdiction while under U.S. control. Venezuela under potential U.S. occupation offers the same legal void with more capacity and less scrutiny. Detain people beyond constitutional protections, beyond congressional oversight, beyond judicial review.
Stephen Miller’s already invoked the Alien Enemies Act to justify mass deportations. Combine that with Venezuelan territory under U.S. military control and you’ve got the infrastructure for exactly what you’re describing: a massive detention system operating in a legal black hole where neither U.S. nor Venezuelan law effectively applies.
This isn’t speculation, it’s following the operational logic of documented authoritarian doctrine to its inevitable conclusion. When methods normalized abroad (extrajudicial detention, torture, indefinite imprisonment without trial) meet territorial control without oversight, the question isn’t “could they” but “what stops them?”
And right now, the answer is: nothing stops them. Venezuela’s not just about oil. It’s about creating ungoverned space under U.S. control where constitutional constraints don’t apply.
Have you read Paul Krugman’s piece today about the viability of Venezuela’s “thick” oil? I was able to corroborate his points and facts about the oil. The oil may not be the boon Trump thinks it is, or he knows all this and we just don’t fully realize what his agenda is at this point.
I'm fairly certain that Venezuela's heavy crude is highly desirable and nets many times more profit because of the less arduous processing. Kinda like the difference between bituminous and sulfur-heavy coal but in reverse. Sorry if that's clear as mud. The cups coach guy explained it much better.
Well, Paul made the point that it’s harder to process Venezuelan oil and a geologist I know confirmed that for me. There’s also a fair amount of tech data available on this subject. I’m no expert here, but I was able to corroborate Paul’s facts with reputable sources. But, no, I’m certainly not an expert on oil.
Excellent breakdown. The $2 billion oil deal proves exactly what the November NSS documented: This was never about narcoterrorism, democracy, or Maduro being a dictator. It was always about redirecting Venezuelan oil from China to U.S. companies. The doctrine explicitly calls for denying “non-Hemispheric competitors” access to “strategically vital assets.” Mission accomplished.
But here’s the profoundly stupid part: The United States is already the world’s largest oil producer. We produce roughly 13 million barrels per day. We don’t need Venezuelan oil for energy security. We’re a net exporter.
So what did Trump just purchase for $2 billion in heavy crude? He killed 80+ people, shredded constitutional war powers, destroyed NATO alliances, validated sphere-of-influence politics for China and Russia, and destabilized an entire hemisphere. For 30-50 million barrels of heavy crude that’s expensive and environmentally catastrophic to refine. Oil we could have simply purchased on the open market. Access we already had through Chevron.
Maduro literally offered oil contracts on January 2nd. Trump bombed Caracas on January 3rd, then negotiated the same deal days later with a terrified government. We got the oil without the bombing. The violence was pure performance to prove the NSS playbook works for replication across the hemisphere.
The economic insanity: Venezuela’s heavy crude requires specialized refining infrastructure most U.S. refineries aren’t optimized for. It’s sulfur-heavy, requires more processing, costs more to refine than the light sweet crude we already produce domestically in massive quantities. From pure energy economics, this makes zero sense.
This was never about smart resource acquisition. The $2 billion in oil is the excuse. The real prize was demonstrating Trump can bomb capitals, extract leaders, and face zero institutional pushback so Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, Greenland all know what compliance costs.
The NSS codified this as doctrine. Venezuela proved it works operationally.
The ramifications compound: Every Latin American government now hedges against U.S. partnership. China and Russia learned sphere-of-influence politics work if you’re brazen enough. NATO allies watched us violate every principle we demanded they uphold. Domestic precedent set that presidents can wage war without Congress. The occupation costs and insurgency risks haven’t even started.
We traded international legitimacy, constitutional governance, and the entire post-WWII rules-based order for oil we already produce in greater quantities domestically. That’s not “America First.” That’s imperial overreach speedrunning its own collapse while the world’s largest oil producer pretends it needs Venezuela’s difficult-to-refine heavy crude for a demonstration effect that will ultimately isolate us.
—Johan
Former Foreign Service Officer
What if Venezuela also became a place for massive, illegal detention? It may be speculative, but still a serious question.
Good point and not speculative at all…it’s operationally logical given the doctrine already in place.
The NSS framework authorizes U.S. control of Venezuelan territory for “strategic” purposes. Trump literally said “we’re going to run the country.” If the administration is already conducting extrajudicial killings domestically via ICE and has explicitly rejected congressional oversight for military operations, what constrains them from using occupied Venezuelan territory as an extraterritorial detention site?
The precedent’s already set: Guantanamo operates precisely because it’s outside U.S. legal jurisdiction while under U.S. control. Venezuela under potential U.S. occupation offers the same legal void with more capacity and less scrutiny. Detain people beyond constitutional protections, beyond congressional oversight, beyond judicial review.
Stephen Miller’s already invoked the Alien Enemies Act to justify mass deportations. Combine that with Venezuelan territory under U.S. military control and you’ve got the infrastructure for exactly what you’re describing: a massive detention system operating in a legal black hole where neither U.S. nor Venezuelan law effectively applies.
This isn’t speculation, it’s following the operational logic of documented authoritarian doctrine to its inevitable conclusion. When methods normalized abroad (extrajudicial detention, torture, indefinite imprisonment without trial) meet territorial control without oversight, the question isn’t “could they” but “what stops them?”
And right now, the answer is: nothing stops them. Venezuela’s not just about oil. It’s about creating ungoverned space under U.S. control where constitutional constraints don’t apply.
—Johan
Former Foreign Service Officer
Have you read Paul Krugman’s piece today about the viability of Venezuela’s “thick” oil? I was able to corroborate his points and facts about the oil. The oil may not be the boon Trump thinks it is, or he knows all this and we just don’t fully realize what his agenda is at this point.
I'm fairly certain that Venezuela's heavy crude is highly desirable and nets many times more profit because of the less arduous processing. Kinda like the difference between bituminous and sulfur-heavy coal but in reverse. Sorry if that's clear as mud. The cups coach guy explained it much better.
Well, Paul made the point that it’s harder to process Venezuelan oil and a geologist I know confirmed that for me. There’s also a fair amount of tech data available on this subject. I’m no expert here, but I was able to corroborate Paul’s facts with reputable sources. But, no, I’m certainly not an expert on oil.
* Anthrocite coal is the "sulfur heavy" coal that takes more refinement and is thus worth less.
That I’m familiar with, thanks for adding all this.
$100 billion dollars for Americans to pay and the oil going right to don